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OECD predicts 3.6 percent GDP growth for Hungary
( 24 / May / 2005 )
Paris, May 24 (MTI) - OECD, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, predicted a 3.6 percent GDP increment for Hungary in 2005 and 3.9 percent in 2006, in its publication Economic Outlook issued on Tuesday.
It forecasts retail consumption growth of 2.5 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year, along with a public consumption decline of 0.4 percent in 2005 and an increase of 0.5 percent in 2006.
Overall, OECD expects domestic demand to go up by 2.5 percent this year and by 4.1 percent next year.
As far as exports are concerned, OECD predicts growth of 11.9 percent this year and 13.1 percent next year, while imports will be up by 10.1 percent this year, and 13 percent in 2006.
OECD analysts forecast an inflation rate of 3.8 percent for both 2005 and 2006, along with a 6.3 percent unemployment rate this year, and a 6.0 percent rate next year.
Calculating the fiscal deficit using the EU's ESA95 method, OECD predicts that it will be 4.2 percent of GDP this year and 4.1 percent next year, with a current account deficit of 7.3 percent of GDP for 2005 and of 6.4 percent for 2006.
Economic Outlook said to expect the economy to pick up in the latter half of 2005 as exports and investments accelerate.
It also noted that macroeconomic indices had been looking better recently but still needed a great deal of work if Hungary was going to be able to introduce the euro in 2010 as scheduled. Declining inflation would allow some relaxation in monetary policy, the publication wrote, but that will have to be accompanied by budget consolidation and strong commitment to the target, together with more forceful measures in making the structural changes to cap expenditure, the OECD analysts wrote.